Amir Naghibi

This study develops a framework for investigating the spatiotemporal variability of dust storm (DS) susceptibility in a major DS source in the Middle East i.e., Tigris-Euphrates River Basin. Visual interpretation of true color composites of MODIS satellite images was used to identify DS sources during period 2000-2021. In total 1,028 dust storm sources were identified. Incorporating 70% of DS sources locations and DS susceptibility conditioning factors e.g., hydrological, topographical, and land use, DS susceptibility maps were generated using random forests algorithm for four periods with different climatic conditions. The results were validated by the remaining 30% of the DS source locations. Findings depicted that higher DS susceptibilities were mainly located around the dried lakes and marshlands. However, DS susceptibility changed during the wet/dry periods. Results also showed that topography, wind speed, rainfall, distance from rivers, and land use were the most important driving factors in DS susceptibility modeling. However, the importance of the conditioning factors changed between the periods. The change in DS susceptibility in different periods could be related to climate, water management strategies, farming strategies, conflict, and land use management in the region. Therefore, a feasible approach to diminish the susceptibility to DS should consider land use, water policies, and conflict management with a transboundary approach.