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Profile photo of Ronny Berndtsson

Ronny Berndtsson

Professor, Dep Director, MECW Dep Scientific Coordinator

Profile photo of Ronny Berndtsson

Drivers of changing urban flood risk : A framework for action


  • Ronny Berndtsson
  • Per Becker
  • Andreas Persson
  • Henrik Aspegren
  • Salar Haghighatafshar
  • Karin Jönsson
  • Rolf Larsson
  • Shifteh Mobini
  • Misagh Mottaghi
  • Jerry Nilsson
  • Jonas Nordström
  • Petter Pilesjö
  • Miklas Scholz
  • Catharina Sternudd
  • Johanna Sörensen
  • Kamshat Tussupova

Summary, in English

This study focuses on drivers for changing urban flood risk. We suggest a framework for guiding climate change adaptation action concerning flood risk and manageability in cities. The identified key drivers of changing flood hazard and vulnerability are used to provide an overview of each driver's impact on flood risk and manageability at the city level. We find that identified drivers for urban flood risk can be grouped in three different priority areas with different time horizon. The first group has high impact but is manageable at city level. Typical drivers in this group are related to the physical environment such as decreasing permeability and unresponsive engineering. The second group of drivers is represented by public awareness and individual willingness to participate and urbanization and urban sprawl. These drivers may be important and are manageable for the cities and they involve both short-term and long-term measures. The third group of drivers is related to policy and long-term changes. This group is represented by economic growth and increasing values at risk, climate change, and increasing complexity of society. They have all high impact but low manageability. Managing these drivers needs to be done in a longer time perspective, e.g., by developing long-term policies and exchange of ideas.


  • Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies (CMES)
  • MECW: The Middle East in the Contemporary World
  • Division of Water Resources Engineering
  • Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • Centre for Geographical Information Systems (GIS Centre)
  • Division of Chemical Engineering
  • Department of Architecture and Built Environment
  • AgriFood Economics Centre, Lund University School of Economics and Management

Publishing year







Journal of Environmental Management





Document type

Journal article




  • Water Engineering


  • Climate change
  • Urban flood management
  • Urban flood risk




  • Sustainable Urban Flood Management


  • ISSN: 0301-4797