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Profile photo of Ronny Berndtsson

Ronny Berndtsson

Professor, Dep Director, MECW Dep Scientific Coordinator

Profile photo of Ronny Berndtsson

The effects of ocean SST dipole on Mongolian summer rainfall

Author

  • Hiroshi Yasuda
  • Banzragch Nandintsetseg
  • Ronny Berndtsson
  • Ganbat Amgalan
  • Masato Shinoda
  • Takayuki Kawai

Summary, in English

Cross-correlations between inter-annual summer rainfall time series (June to August: JJA) for arid Mongolia and global sea surface temperatures (GSST) were calculated for prediction purposes. Prediction of summer rainfall for four vegetation zones, Desert Steppe (DS), Steppe (ST), Forest Steppe (FS), and High Mountain (HM) using GSSTs for time lags of 5, 6, and 7 months prior to JJA rainfall was evaluated. Mongolian summer rainfall is correlated with global SSTs. In particular, the summer rainfall of FS and HM displayed high and statistically sigtime series of the SST differences between SST dipoles (positive – negative) with the summer rainfall time series was larger than the original correlations. To preused. Time series of the SST difference that represents the strength of the dipole were used as input to the ANN model, and Mongolian summer rainfall was predicted 5, 6, and 7 months ahead in time. The predicted summer rainfall compared reasonably well with the observed rainfall in the four different vegetation zones. This implies that the model can be used to predict summer rainfall for the four main Mongolian vegetation zones with good accuracy.

Department/s

  • Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies (CMES)
  • MECW: The Middle East in the Contemporary World
  • Division of Water Resources Engineering
  • LTH Profile Area: Water

Publishing year

2017

Language

English

Pages

199-218

Publication/Series

Geofizika

Volume

34

Issue

1

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Geofizicki Zavod

Topic

  • Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

Keywords

  • Artificial neural networks
  • Dryland
  • Mongolian rainfall
  • Rainfall prediction
  • SST teleconnection

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0352-3659