When the war in Syria broke out in 2011, the country had been severely affected by drought for two to three years. The crop failure and the lack of water were devastating for agriculture in large parts of the country. The common view among many politicians and researchers has been that the drought created a mass exodus from the countryside. But in a new study published in the scientific journal Climate and Development, researchers from Lund University can show that the drought had little significance.
– We can show that Syrian farmers had ways to adapt to the drought. They did not abandon their land and migrate to the extent indicated in the debate so far. It was rather the war that made the farmers leave their homes, says Lina Eklund, researcher at Lund University.
Holistic Perspective on the Debate
In the study, the researchers used a unique method starting with surveys and interviews. These have then been combined with remote sensing of satellite-based land use data to produce a comprehensive picture. The method has never before been used to analyze the link between drought and migration in Syria.
– Our study contributes with an overall perspective to the debate on the connection between climate, migration and conflict, and shows the complex connections that exist. We also show the possibilities of combining local perspectives with large-scale satellite data collected from space to get a better picture of the situation, says Pinar Dinc, researcher at Lund University.
War Has a Stronger Impact
The study shows that war has a much stronger influence on the decision to leave one's home than drought has. This may seem obvious, but in the narrative that exists around the drought in Syria and its impact on the population, a mass movement of people from the countryside to the cities is often described. The new research results show that this was not the case, at least not in the four northeastern provinces specifically studied in the article.
– Finding out what really happened and how people actually experienced the period of drought can help us understand what kind of support small-scale farmers in vulnerable areas need in order to cope with a future of more frequent droughts, which climate change is expected to bring, says Lina Eklund.
The study is published in the scientific journal Climate and Development: ”Syrian farmers in the midst of drought and conflict: The causes, patterns, and aftermath of land abandonment and migration”
Pinar Dinc is a lecturer and researcher at the Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies and the Department of Political Science. Pinar's research profile
Lina Eklund is a lecturer and researcher at the Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science and the Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies. Lina's research profile
