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Profile photo of Lina Eklund

Lina Eklund

Researcher

Profile photo of Lina Eklund

Societal drought vulnerability and the Syrian climate-conflict nexus are better explained by agriculture than meteorology

Author

  • Lina Eklund
  • Ole Magnus Theisen
  • Matthias Baumann
  • Andreas Forø Tollefsen
  • Tobias Kuemmerle
  • Jonas Østergaard Nielsen

Summary, in English

Droughts are often suspected to increase the risk of violent conflict through agricultural production shocks, and existing studies often explore these links through meteorological proxies. In Syria, an alleged agricultural collapse caused by drought is assumed to have contributed to increased migration and the conflict outbreak in 2011. Here we use satellite derived cropland and climate data to study land use dynamics in relation to drought and conflict in Syria. We show that claims of an agricultural collapse cannot be substantiated as croplands saw a fast recovery after the 2007–2009 drought. Our study highlights the importance of considering land-use dynamics for understanding linkages between meteorological droughts, agricultural impacts, migration and conflict. Furthermore, our results suggest that the influential drought-migration-conflict narrative for Syria needs to be reexamined, with implications for wider discussions of how climate change might alter conflict risk.

Department/s

  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies (CMES)
  • MECW: The Middle East in the Contemporary World

Publishing year

2022-04-06

Language

English

Publication/Series

Nature Communications Earth & Environment

Volume

3

Issue

85

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Springer Nature

Topic

  • Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
  • Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
  • Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
  • Human Geography

Keywords

  • drought
  • land use
  • conflict
  • Syria
  • climate change
  • migration
  • agriculture

Status

Published

Project

  • Societal impacts of climate stress: An integrated assessment of drought, vulnerability, and conflict in Syria

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 2662-4435