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Ronny Berndtsson

Professor, Dep Director, MECW Dep Scientific Coordinator

Profile photo of Ronny Berndtsson

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Balance Components Using Integrated Groundwater–Surface Water Models (Case Study: Shazand Plain, Iran)

Author

  • Farzaneh Soltani
  • Saman Javadi
  • Abbas Roozbahani
  • Ali Reza Massah Bavani
  • Golmar Golmohammadi
  • Ronny Berndtsson
  • Sami Ghordoyee Milan
  • Rahimeh Maghsoudi

Summary, in English

Assessing the status of water resources is essential for long-term planning related to water and many other needs of a country. According to climate reports, climate change is on the rise in all parts of the world; however, this phenomenon will have more consequences in arid and semi-arid regions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, and their exchanges in Shazand plain in Iran, which has experienced a significant decline in streamflow and groundwater level in recent years. To address this issue, we propose the use of the integrated hydrological model MODFLOW-OWHM to simulate groundwater level, surface water routing, and their interactions; a climate model, NorESM, under scenario SSP2, for climate data prediction; and, finally, the HEC-HMS model to predict future river discharge. The results predict that, under future climate conditions, the river discharges at the hydrometric stations of the region may decrease by 58%, 63%, 75%, and 81%. The average groundwater level in 2060 may decrease significantly by 15.1 m compared to 2010. The results of this study reveal the likely destructive effects of climate change on water resources in this region and highlight the need for sustainable management methods to mitigate these future effects.

Department/s

  • Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies (CMES)
  • MECW: The Middle East in the Contemporary World
  • Division of Water Resources Engineering
  • LTH Profile Area: Water

Publishing year

2023

Language

English

Publication/Series

Water (Switzerland)

Volume

15

Issue

4

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

MDPI AG

Topic

  • Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

Keywords

  • climate change
  • groundwater–surface water interactions
  • integrated hydrological model
  • MODFLOW-OWHM
  • water resources

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 2073-4441