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Profile photo of Ronny Berndtsson

Ronny Berndtsson

Professor, Dep Director, MECW Dep Scientific Coordinator

Profile photo of Ronny Berndtsson

Summer precipitation prediction in the source region of the Yellow River using climate indices

Author

  • Feifei Yuan
  • Ronny Berndtsson
  • Cintia Bertacchi Uvo
  • Linus Zhang
  • Peng Jiang

Summary, in English

The summer precipitation from June to September in the source region of the Yellow River accounts for about 70% of the annual total, and its decrease would cause further water shortage problems. Consequently, the objectives of this study are to improve the understanding of the linkages between the precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River and global teleconnection patterns, and to predict the summer precipitation based on revealed teleconnections. Spatial variability of precipitation was investigated based on three homogeneous sub-regions. Principal component analysis and singular value decomposition were used to find significant relationships between the precipitation and global teleconnection patterns using climate indices. A back-propagation neural network was developed to predict the summer precipitation using significantly correlated climate indices. It was found that precipitation in the study area is positively related to North Atlantic Oscillation, West Pacific Pattern and El Niño Southern Oscillation, and inversely related to Polar Eurasian pattern. Summer precipitation was overall well predicted. The Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted and observed summer precipitation was, in general, larger than 0.6. The results can be used to predict the summer precipitation and to improve integrated water resources management in the Yellow River basin.

Department/s

  • Division of Water Resources Engineering
  • Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies (CMES)
  • MECW: The Middle East in the Contemporary World

Publishing year

2016-08-01

Language

English

Pages

847-856

Publication/Series

Hydrology Research

Volume

47

Issue

4

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

IWA Publishing

Topic

  • Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

Keywords

  • Source region of the Yellow River
  • Summer precipitation prediction
  • Teleconnection pattern

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1998-9563