The event opened with remarks by Lund University Vice-Chancellor Erik Renström.
A complex and evolving situation
The panel, moderated by CMES Deputy Director Lisa Strömbom, brought together scholars and practitioners from different disciplines to discuss Iran’s current trajectory and possible futures. The discussion took place against the backdrop of escalating tensions in 2026, including widespread protests, violent repression, and military confrontation involving Iran, Israel and the United States.
Speakers highlighted how domestic unrest, authoritarian governance and geopolitical conflict are deeply intertwined, making the situation particularly difficult to analyse in isolation.
Movements from below and the resilience of the regime
Several contributions focused on internal dynamics within Iran. Parvin Ardalan, journalist and women’s rights activist, emphasised the long history of resistance within Iranian society, particularly from feminist movements. She described how repeated uprisings, most recently in 2022 and 2025, have increasingly challenged the political system, while also facing intensified repression.
At the same time, external military pressure has not led to regime collapse. Instead, speakers noted that conflict can reinforce state power. According to Ardalan, the recent war enabled the regime to reassert legitimacy through narratives of national defence, even after significant internal dissent.
Diversity, inequality and competing visions of Iran
The panel also highlighted Iran’s internal diversity and structural inequalities. Barzoo Eliassi stressed that Iran is often portrayed as homogeneous, but in reality consists of multiple ethnic, religious and social groups shaped by unequal power relations.
Discussions pointed to tensions between different political visions for Iran’s future, including centralised state models and more decentralised alternatives. Minority groups, particularly in regions such as Kurdistan and Sistan - Baluchestan, face restrictions and are often framed in security terms, especially during periods of regional escalation.
Civil society under pressure
Journalist and analyst Bitte Hammargren described Iran as a country with a strong and vibrant civil society, including active student and women’s movements. However, she noted that the current conflict has created a backlash, increasing risks for activists and making it more difficult to access reliable information from within the country.
At the same time, she emphasised that change is unlikely to come through military intervention. Instead, several speakers argued that meaningful transformation in Iran must emerge from within society rather than being imposed externally.
Nuclear negotiations and geopolitical tensions
A central theme of the discussion was Iran’s nuclear programme and its role in international politics. Dina Tawfik explained how Iran views nuclear enrichment as a sovereign right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while also using it as leverage in negotiations with global powers.
The panel traced the rise and breakdown of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), highlighting how shifting political priorities and mutual mistrust have complicated efforts to reach new agreements.
Speakers noted that military action may delay nuclear development but is unlikely to eliminate it entirely, as technical knowledge remains within the country.
War, diplomacy and uncertain futures
Looking ahead, Anders Persson described the current conflict as part of a longer trajectory of recurring tensions in the region, linking it to previous conflicts and unresolved disputes. He argued that without diplomatic agreements, the risk of continued or renewed conflict remains high.
The panel outlined different possible pathways, including military escalation, ceasefires or broader conflict transformation, but emphasised that none offer simple or immediate solutions.
No simple answers
Across the discussion, one conclusion stood out: the situation in Iran defies simple explanations. As the panel highlighted, questions of governance, civil rights, regional power dynamics and global politics are closely interconnected.
Understanding Iran’s future therefore requires attention not only to geopolitical developments, but also to the internal dynamics of society, where pressures for change continue to persist despite significant constraints.
Thank you for participating in our panel
Moderator: Lisa Strömbom
CMES and Department of Political Science.
Speakers:
Parvin Ardalan
Journalist and womens’ rights activist
Barzoo Eliassi
Associate Professor of Social Work, Linneaus University
Bitte Hammargren
Journalist and Middle East Analyst
Anders Persson
Associate Professor of Political Science, Linneaus University
Dina Tawfik
Phd Student in Political Science and Middle East Studies, Lund University
In cooperation with the Association for Foreign Affairs, LU.
When: 27 April, 18:15 to 20:00
Where: Edens hörsal